Backed by IOM and financed by the UN Central Emergency Response Fund, the pilot focuses on one of Africas most climate-exposed regions, where shifting rainfall and limited pasture and water can intensify competition between pastoral communities. The project aims to strengthen early warning systems that track environmental and livelihood stress so that authorities and partners can plan interventions and support conflict prevention.

Pastoralists in Ethiopias Somali Region traditionally move herds in response to rain, grass growth, and water availability, but increasing climate variability is making these patterns harder to predict. Changing rainfall regimes are altering when and where herders travel, adding uncertainty to decisions that underpin food security and livelihoods.

GIST and IOM are using five years of high-resolution Soil Moisture Insights from Spire, combined with fieldwork and local consultations, to map conflict dynamics and understand how rainfall, water, and soil conditions shape pastoral mobility across extensive rangelands. The analysis shows how fluctuations in soil moisture influence herd routes and demonstrates how space-based data can represent the same environmental signals pastoralists use when following clouds in search of rain and grazing.

The communities we speak with often describe their choice to move as following the clouds, said Romain Galgani, Senior Research Lead at GIST. With satellite observations, were able to use technology to carry that tradition forward: studying and analyzing the same patterns through data and helping translate them into information that supports timely, local decisions.

Pastoral mobility is one of the oldest forms of climate adaptation, said Sascha Nlabu, IOM Ethiopia Head of Programmes. Across the Somali Region, herders depend on rapid decisions about when and where to move livestock. By reinforcing that intuition with reliable data, we are bridging centuries-old knowledge with modern satellite technology.

This collaboration is a powerful example of how our space-based data can help people and organizations act sooner, not later, said Theresa Condor, Chief Executive Officer at Spire Global. When we can turn near-real-time soil moisture signals into decisions that protect livelihoods, we move from monitoring the planet to truly empowering those living through its changes.

GIST and IOM are building an interactive early warning dashboard that integrates live Soil Moisture Insights from Spire to display pastoral routes and ecological risks in near real time and to support drought preparedness. The tool is intended to create a mobility-sensitive early warning system that combines local knowledge with high-resolution satellite data, strengthening resilience and informing anticipatory actions for pastoralist communities.

The dashboard draws on GISTs data analytics and predictive modeling work and is presented as a proof of concept for integrating satellite-derived soil moisture with existing early warning frameworks. The aim is to support faster and more localized decision-making before drought or displacement escalates.

Spires Soil Moisture Insights product provides near-real-time measurements of surface wetness and dryness worldwide, derived from the companys constellation of dual use satellites. The observations penetrate cloud and darkness and can resolve subsurface conditions at resolutions up to 100 meters, enabling applications in drought forecasting, flood monitoring, agriculture, and supply chain risk management.

By quantifying soil moisture conditions, organizations can better anticipate environmental change, manage natural resources, and plan adaptation measures in regions facing rapid climate shifts.

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